The Telegram (St. John's)
Mon 22 Jan 2007
Page: A1
Section: Front
Byline: Rosie Gillingham
Source:

If sealers continue to harvest at the same rates over the next few years, it could spell trouble for the herd population, according to the Department of Fisheries and Oceans' leading marine mammal scientist.

Dr. Garry Stenson said the combination of high mortality and low reproduction rates has caused the seal population to drop by almost half a million - from 5.8 million to 5.4 million over the last several years.

Those numbers will continue to decline, he said, if the catches remain the same, forcing it to a point where it could be an environmental concern in the very near future.

"It means if we continue to take (the current quota of) 325,000 seals (each year), what we're predicting is that we've got two, maybe three, years before it becomes a conservation concern," he said.

Decline expected

Considering the high catches, the decline was expected. He said back in 2003, scientists estimated sealers could take about 250,000 seals a year.

"Well, we've been taking out 325,000 up to 355,000, but that was OK because we said we could do that for a few years on the understanding we would have a few good years, but then we would have to cut back," said Stenson, whose current research focuses on seals population dynamics. "And that's where we are now - we're going to have to start cutting back.

While Stenson is an internationally recognized expert on seal populations, he has no official say on where seal quotas are set. However, the information he provides influences government's decision.

Fisheries and Oceans Minister Loyola Hearn is considering reducing the quotas next year. He expects to make his final decision within the next week or so after he meets with DFO management.

"Now the question becomes where do we want to be in the future?" Hearn said.

Poor ice conditions have had a big impact on the mortality rate, Stenson said. It has resulted in the deaths of many pups, which have drowned..

"You start getting to the point where there's fewer young coming in. It's kind of like our rural communities in Newfoundland - the young just aren't there," said Stenson, a biology professor at Memorial University and member of the committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada marine mammal subcommittee.

"And when it really has an impact is when those young should be there to breed, which happens (in seals), on average, at around five years of age."

Other causes of mortality include struck and loss - in which sealers shoot and kill the animal but are unable to retrieve it - and fishing gear catches, in which young harp seals are caught in fishermen's gear while they catching lump fish in the spring.

Stenson said for the commercial hunt, scientists estimate a between two and five per cent loss due to struck and loss. However, he said scientists apply a 50 per cent loss in the Arctic, where data is collected and recorded in varying ways. Seals in the Arctic and Greenland, he said, are also often shot in open waters. When compiling a population model, the seals in the Arctic and Greenland are included since they are from the same population, which is migratory.

He said seal catches in fishing gear peaked in the mid-1990s, when up to 40,000 were estimated to have been caught. However, in this era, he said it's lower, partly due to the fewer nets out and the shorter fishing season.

Stenson said scientists will continue to work with sealers to monitor reproductive rates.

While official population surveys are completed every four or five years, Stenson said counts based on the population model is used yearly, based on the reproductive and catch data. The last official survey was done in 2004, with the next in 2009.

He noted estimating populations is difficult and scientists often make assumptions based on the data they can acquire.

In the end, Stenson said the goal is to try and prevent disasters, like what happened in the cod fishery.

"That's exactly what we're trying to avoid," he said. "Now, we are nowhere near where we were with cod. We still have a very healthy (seal) population.

"We just want to make sure we keep it that way."

rgillingham@thetelegram.com

© 2007 Transcontinental Media G.P. All rights reserved.

Variation in Ice Cover on the East Coast of Canada, February - March, 1969-2006: Implications for harp and hooded seals

by A.S. Friedlaender, D.W. Johnston, S.L. Fink, and D.M. Lavigne

These scientists examined the ice cover for the past years in the Gulf of St. Lawrence and off the East coast of Newfoundland and Labrador during the months of February and March. They found that in nine of the past eleven years, the region experienced below average ice cover. They discuss the implications of this phenomenon on the harp and hooded seals, who depend on the sea ice to give birth to, nurse, and wean their pups.

Read the article here.